May Trade & Investment Report
Key Economic Indicators
Indicators | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 (f) | 2013 (f) | Broad Trend |
Irish GDP Growth | -0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 2.3% | 
|
US GDP Growth | 3.0% | 1.7% | 2.9%
| 3.1%
|
|
Irish GNP Growth | 0.3% | -2.5% | -0.2% | 1.0% | 
|
Irish Inflation (CPI) | -1.0% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% |
|
US Inflation (CPI) | 2.7% | 2.9% | - | - |
|
Main ECB Interest Rates End of Year | 1.0% | 1.0% | - | - |
|
Irish Unemployment | 13.6% | 14.2% | 14.0% | 13.7% | 
|
Balance of Payments C/A | €0.76b | €0.127b | €3.5b | €5.5b |
|
Markit Eurozone Composite PMI | 55.9 | 57.8 | 46.7 | - | 
|
Source: ESRI Quarterly Commentary Autumn 2011, unless stated
Arrow Direction indicates direction of trend;arrow colour indicates whether trends are perceived as positive (Green) or negative (red).
(f) = forecast
Economic News
Further evidence of economic stabilisation
Services activity expanded for the third month in a row in April while manufacturing activity experienced a marginal dip. This was offset by an increase in new orders and a faster pace of hiring. The NCB PMI posted at 50.1 in April, down from 51.5 in March. This indicated that operating conditions were largely unchanged during the month. The services index increased to 52.2 in April, up from 52.1 in March and continuing a trend of expansion since February.
Manufacturing respondents remained optimistic of a recovery helped by a pick-up in Ireland and the euro zone and growth in new exports, the survey stated. New export orders increased, lifted by rising spending on marketing; however the rate of growth eased marginally to the weakest in three months.
Separately, exchequer returns for April 2012 show a 12.4% increase in the tax take on a year-on-year basis, with corporation tax up 76.6% year-on-year and VAT increased by 2.8%. On a monthly comparison receipts were 1.3% lower on April 2011. The returns are marginally ahead of Government targets and indicate a stabilisation of the tax base.
Sources: NCB Stockbrokers, Department of Finance
Trade surplus slows slightly in February as global outlook dims
Ireland's trade surplus fell in February as both imports and exports declined over the month.
Preliminary figures for the month showed the trade surplus was €197 million lower compared with January. Seasonally adjusted exports were down by €1.06 billion compared with January, while imports were €856 million lower. This comes in the context of a forecast for slower trade growth in 2012 by the World Trade Organisation. According to the WTO global trade expanded in 2011 by 5.0%, a sharp deceleration from the 2010 rebound of 13.8%, and growth will slow further still to 3.7% in 2012. They attribute the slowdown to a loss of momentum due to a number of shocks, including the European sovereign debt crisis.
Sources: CSO, WTO
Consumer sentiment continues to improve
Irish consumer sentiment improved in March with respondents less pessimistic about their employment prospects and the outlook for the economy, according to the latest KBC Bank Ireland/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index.
While consumers were still concerned about their personal finances, the survey noted that the fears observed late last year were receding. The KBC/ESRI CSI rose to 60.6 last month, up from 57.0 in February, with its strongest rating since last October. The rise brings the three-month moving average to 58.1. Readings over 50 indicate a growth in confidence.
Source: The Irish Times
Global FDI returns to pre-2007 levels in 2011
FDI flows returned to levels last witnessed before 2007 last year, according to the latest Global Investments Trend Monitor. The report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) observed that global FDI flows increased by 16% in 2011 to an estimated $1.66 trillion. This growth was due in large part to cross-border mergers and acquisitions and to increased amounts of cash reserves kept in foreign affiliates. The EU, USA and Japan led the expansion among developed economies as FDI outflows increased by 25%.
The report states that the outlook for FDI outflows in 2012 continues to improve since the depth of the financial crisis, but remain guarded due to continued fragility in the global economic recovery.
Source: UNCTAD
HSBC forecasts accelerated trade growth for Ireland
In its February ‘Global Connections' report, HSBC predicted Irish trade to grow by 76.2% to 2026, with companies predicted to increase activity by 3% annually over the next 15 years. The report identifies moderate growth prospects up to 2016 but thereafter anticipates annualised growth in excess of 4% up to 2021.
Trade with the US is set to increase at an annualised rate of 6.42% over the next five years. In its previous report in October 2011 HSBC forecast that the US will replace the UK as Ireland's largest trading partner in 2025.
Source: HSBC
Irish research fuelling US ‘Open Government'
A US government initiative in Open Government and data sharing, www.data.gov, has adopted a set of web tools and standards developed by NUI Galway's Digital Enterprise Research Institute (DERI). The website, intended to facilitate public access to federal government datasets, is using DERI technologies to link web-based information. It is another initiative in the burgeoning ‘open data' trend.
Source: The Irish Times
Investment Announcements
Amgen
Amgen has announced the start of a $200 million-plus expansion programme expected to result in the creation of 100 jobs. The investment will include the construction of an approximately 11,700 square metres building extension, new production plant, expanded warehouse and the major refurbishment of the existing buildings. In addition, a significant R&D investment will also see the Dun Laoghaire facility undergo a major technology process enhancement to transform the plant.
Apple
Apple is to expand its presence in Cork, creating more than 500 jobs. The technology giant is expected to construct a new office block to accommodate the additional staff in the coming 18 months. Apple currently employs about 2,800 people at its distribution, supply chain and back-office operation in Cork.
Cisco
Cisco has announced a €26m investment in its research and development centre in Galway leading to the creation of 115 jobs. The investment, to be made over two years, will add to the existing 180 staff in Galway. The investment is set to focus on new areas in communication and collaboration software technology, including desktop virtualisation and real-time web communications.
M/A-COM
M/A-COM Technology Solutions is expanding its Cork operation, where it currently employs 68 people. In 2011, the company established its international headquarters in Cork and in 2010 the company commenced an IDA supported R&D project in IC (integrated circuit) design. The expansion is expected to add 30 jobs.
Mylan
Mylan has announced annual investment of up to €76 million over the next five years, including funding for expanded research and development (R&D) capabilities. It is expected that this will add more than 500 new positions to its Irish workforce by 2016. Mylan currently is the largest generics pharmaceutical manufacturer in Ireland and one of the world's leading pharmaceutical companies.